Western “liberals” still not getting Modi’s demonetization move.

If you didn’t laugh at their cognitive dissonance … you’d laugh anyway

Cognitive dissonance is the gap between reality and what you would prefer reality to be. That gap gets filled with error and blindness when you can’t face up to what’s actually happening in the world. It’s thinking wishfully, with an edge of psychotic unreason. The Trump hysteria among Clinton Democrats and others in the USA (what Scott Adams calls “Trump Derangement Syndrome”) derives from an unwillingness to accept that their candidate was poisonously unpopular, lost the election, and that this is really for real.

The Leftish Naked Capitalism website, usually excellent on many matters, has been simply appalling in its coverage of India under Modi, and this I also put down to cognitive dissonance. It uncritically prints articles by notorious Congress Party frontmen inaccurate in details and wholly ideological in content.

Western stooges of Indian fake-liberal media and politico types have aligned their Gandhi-Clinton attitudes and agreed to mutually support each other for many years. Now they are both in agony and for its part Naked Capitalism is acting out its part in the nihilistic, post-modern identity politics activism that condemned Modi sight unseen as Adolf Hitler (it’s always Hitler with these dreary people). I wrote a book showing how stupidly wrong that assumption was and I’ve already spent enough time on it.

But this latest idiocy—endorsed by a writer who is normally very good—deserves some scorn (coming right up). I guess this is what happens when you have a fixed point of view, and then you simply apply it to an area you know only scantily, so that you’re ignorant of even very basic facts and end up looking like a fool.

I regard myself as a Liberal in the classic tradition, in favour of individual rights, liberty and free trade; or as Matt Ridley excellently reformulated it in a recent essay, a free-market anti-capitalist. But it’s revealing to find I have nothing in common with these Modi-hating liars who see themselves somehow as liberals, too.

It’s difficult to know where to start with how the Western media has traduced the so-called demonetization in India. I guess facts are the best way to go, unfashionable though that seems to be with the know-alls who hate Mod’s government.

A factual recap, for God’s sake

In November 2016 the 500- and 1000-rupee banknotes were abruptly withdrawn from circulation in India. This created queues at banks, and other inconveniences, but no major economic troubles ensued. I’ve written before about how the prices of groceries in the chowks didn’t go up at all, so supply chains were clearly not disrupted—India’s poor know how to cope, and they were behind Modi all the way. His popularity actually increased during the period.

The ordinary people supported Modi because he had prepared the ground by ensuring that 300 million (and counting) poor Indians had been given online bank accounts so they wouldn’t have to depend on cash—nor any longer on the vulture-like chit-wallahs who would “look after” their banknotes for extortionate fees.

The withdrawal of the notes was prepared in secrecy. Why? Because Modi wanted to help the ordinary Indians and India’s economy, and penalise the two parties guilty of abuse and corruption: rich Indians who profited from bribery and mostly kept their “black money” in cash (typically piles and stacks of 1000-rupee notes), and the Islamic forgers in Pakistan who were trying to undermine the Indian economy by flooding it with fake 500- and 1000-rupee notes. Surprise was vital.

The false way all this was reported was that Modi was doing away with the notes and trying to take India to a cashless, therefore authoritarian system. (In the West that’s apparently a brilliant move for democracy,  the same journalists say, but never mind …)

In fact, from the his very first announcement on the subject, Modi had explained carefully and slowly, for the hard to understand (journalists), that the old 500-rupee note and the old-1000 rupee note would very quickly be replaced by new ones, and in addition an entirely new 2000-rupee note would be minted to take account of the larger values of cash Indians were enjoying carrying around these days. I’ve put a photo of the new note at the head of this piece so you can see I am not making all this up. In simple terms: Modi was not demonetizing anything.

Did everybody get that? Not journalists, apparently. Endless articles appeared decrying the “chaos” and the failed experiment in a cashless economy. The Indian government had pledged (yes they had) to have cash levels back to normal quite soon and aimed at a January-February dateline for it. I think they got about 90% of the way there by the end of January. Now in India everything is back to normal, with two important exceptions: the beneficiaries of years of bribery winked at by Congress governments are  a lot poorer because their cash became worthless overnight, and the Indian poor are a lot happier with their lot and with Modi. Oh, and a happy by-product is that the Pakistanis have been badly hurt by it too because they cannot forge the new notes.

I know I’m banging my head against a brick wall with all this. To return to the piss-poor article at Naked Capitalism, the idiotic headline was “India’s Demonetization Experiment Fails to Demonetize: Cash Comes Full Circle”. Well, that’s what was supposed to happen all along. I don’t think that anything will ever get through the thick skulls of such fools, so why bother? And yet somehow one must point out lies, I suppose. It goes on:

Demonetization in India has been a debacle, and there is no end to the problems that it has created currently in sight. The best that can be said about it is that it might deter political leaders in other countries think long and hard before initiating similarly ill-conceived, premature efforts to try and nudge transactions away from cash and toward cashless payment systems.

All I can do is refer you back to the colourful photo of that brand-new 2000-rupee note.

“Reform, Perform, Transform”

Meanwhile, in defiance of the fake-liberal gloomsters, India’s economy marches ever upwards and its business-friendly environment continues to improve. A happier headline a few weeks ago related to how India has moved up in the ease-of-doing-business rankings since Modi was elected prime minister.

India’s old ranking, one week after Modi took office in 2014, was a pathetic 142nd, almost like some corrupt third-world state … Since then, it’s just been announced, India has rocketed 42 places to sit at 100, and that it is one of the ten most improved economies, especially in the areas of Resolving Insolvency (136 to 103), Paying Taxes (172 to 119 ), Getting Credit (44 to 29), Enforcing Contracts (172 to 164), Protecting Minority Investors (13 to 4) and Construction Permits (185 to 181).

It ranked higher than China in three of those categories.

Suck it up, Naked Capitalism.

 

Antifragile India

What are we to make of the extraordinary progress and results that Modi is achieving? It could be the ‘antifragile’ phenomenon in action.

Of the five recent Indian state assembly elections – in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur – the BJP either won outright or formed a ruling coalition in four of them. Only in Punjab did the party strike out, and this was easily foreseen. I think it is time to begin to speak of Modi making India – and himself – ‘antifragile’.

The most stupefying electoral result was from Uttar Pradesh. At the conclusion of my last post I cautiously guessed at a 60-70% chance of Modi (and I purposely say ‘Modi’ rather than ‘BJP’) winning in UP. It transpired that an unprecedented landslide in Modi’s favour gave the BJP 312 seats (excluding alliances) out of a 403-seat Vidhan Sabha. This is almost unbelievable, especially when the doom-laden predictions of electoral oblivion – heavily predicated on the ‘disastrous’ demonetisation of late 2016 – are taken into account.

Continue reading “Antifragile India”

We don’t need no stinking dynasties!

The Democrats and the US media gave Trump the Modi treatment – with the same results

My friend Winston the electrician called round last week, a couple of days after Donald Trump’s election victory. I unlocked and swung open the gate and he was pointing at me.

‘You’re the man, Andy, you’re the man! You said Trump would win!’ he said.

I’d briefly forgotten the conversation we’d had the previous Monday, on the eve of the US presidential election, when I’d heretically argued that in spite of all the pro-Clinton hysteria on the TV and wireless, I thought that Trump had a very good chance of stealing victory from under the noses of the Democrat-supporting media. Almost all journalists and commentators were so frantically virtue-signalling that they couldn’t detect the reality of what was happening on the ground.

And so it transpired. I didn’t take any particular delight in Trump’s victory; I wasn’t even gruntled at having been more or less correct in predicting he would win. I didn’t like Hillary at all – a greedy, corrupt, establishment money-grubber and war-monger who had utterly forsaken the ordinary folk who were the Democratic Party’s mass (and essential) voters. Trump was loud, vulgar, abusive and egomaniacal – although he was less boring than the alternative. Like many, I quite liked some of what he was saying but I wondered if it was insincere and crazed gibberish that he had no real intent of making good on. But he certainly knew how to ‘lead and pace’ his supporters.

Continue reading “We don’t need no stinking dynasties!”

September upsum

A lot’s happened since Bharatiyata! started half a year ago. Let’s have a quick review of what this is all about …

I started this website back in February and now, just over six months later, I’m going to do a quick upsum to see how far we’ve come, where we’ve got to, what topics we’ve covered and where we’re going. It’s a drawing of breath before moving forward again.

First of all, I haven’t done much over the past month – in fact the work has been mostly behind the scenes as I’ve been ‘SEO-optimising’ the site (mind-numbing work) and bringing various things up to date. At the start I decided I wouldn’t take advertising on here because Bharatiyata! was not created to be a money-making vehicle, at least not in the short-term sense of scraping fractions of pennies from click-throughs. I have zero interest in that model of commerce. I’m trying to be generous with this site and am simply attempting to give information and insight to people who might be interested in those topics. Continue reading “September upsum”

So much more than musical chairs

Studying the changing profile of power in Modi’s government will reward those who wish to understand and do business with India

A week ago Prime Minister Narendra Modi initiated a major reshuffle of his cabinet and ministers. Halfway through the NDA’s term of government is a good time to take stock in a significant way, and to position the government for the coming election in 2019 whose approach is still just below the horizon.

What seems clear is that with this reshuffle Modi is further putting his stamp on the character of the administration, and that he has one eye on the future electoral profile of the BJP: good performance is rewarded and poor performance, including ministers getting too big for their boots, is punished. The demotion everybody is talking about is Smriti Irani being moved from Employment to Textiles due to her proclivity for never knowingly avoiding a fight and admiring herself way too much. Some claim it is not a demotion but a sideways deployment that positions her to fight in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh elections. (Note that the Gandhi family ‘pocket boroughs’, Amethi and Rae Bareli – which hold the honours of the most severe child malnutrition in India, and some of the worst highways – are in Uttar Pradesh.) Others say that is nonsense and that caste issues by far outweigh any influence that Irani could bring to bear in that state. We shall see.

Continue reading “So much more than musical chairs”

Things are finally moving …

Modi entered Delhi facing an entrenched and obstructive government bureaucracy that was bespoke-designed over many decades to serve the bigwigs of Congress

Despite being Modi’s biographer and genuinely liking the man, I am not here to defend him. It is a fact that as we pass the two-year mark of the BJP administration in power, there are justified criticisms to be made. Overall the biggest complaint has to be the apparently slow and timid pace of change and reform – for, incidentally, nothing dramatically disastrous or unforgivable has occurred, despite such being endlessly predicted by Modi’s political and media enemies loyal to the Gandhi dynasty.

When I am asked, as I always am asked, the reason why Modi has not changed everything quickly and delivered India to its wonderful prosperous destiny already, I reply with an offering of a reality sandwich. First of all, Modi entered Delhi facing an entrenched and obstructive government bureaucracy that was bespoke-designed over many decades to serve the bigwigs of the Congress Party and the Gandhi dynasty. Very many careers were owed to and depended upon the established structure; forcing it to change was always going to be a Herculean task. The babus of government service constitute a complete society, unbelieveably  loyal to that Gandhi dynasty, and changing their orientation would be a work of years and would require a master administrator.

Continue reading “Things are finally moving …”

Why India? #2

India is finally waking from its slumber

Soon enough I hope to remove the question-mark from this series of posts even though that might appear optimistic given India’s track-record of (self-imposed) failures. I’m no Aunt Sally: I am not trying to look on the bright side, nor to poke around for morsels of good news among the gristly stuff. I’m not a Trümmerfrau either, picking among the wreckage and piling up the bricks and masonry strewn around the bombsite to start building an impossible future. I am in fact a hopeful skeptic rather than a pessimist.

For pessimism is an aspect of nihilism and nihilism is an aspect of narcissism, which is itself an aspect of solipsism. India has been subjected to quite enough of that.

India has also been the victim of skewed perceptions since Independence, and has mostly believed what it has been told.

For example, it is difficult to grasp the economic potential and promise of India, partly because in geographic terms it is relatively insignificant, covering much less than half the land mass of the USA or China – which are almost identical in size, at 3,805,927 and 3,705,407 square miles respectively – and only one fifth of the territory of Russia, which is 6,592,800 square miles excluding the Crimea.

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Nassim Taleb: ‘Modi gets it!’

Modi’s making India ‘anti-fragile’

This was Black Swan author Nassim Nicholas Taleb – who incidentally is Lebanese Greek Orthodox, not Muslim – being interviewed in Finland last summer. He was discussing the way in which ‘anti-fragile’ entities, those which benefit from untoward events instead of being damaged and diminished by them, are superior to larger, conventional, top-down or traditional ones.

In this interview the thrust of Taleb’s critique of current structures, of government, economics and education, is precisely that they are fragile. Paradoxically ‘fragile’ for Taleb means strong and robust – but only up to a point, beyond which a single blow can destroy them, like a china cup. Taleb was criticising top-down structures for their lack of adaptability and decentralisation/dispersion.

Continue reading “Nassim Taleb: ‘Modi gets it!’”