Pakistan and China: India’s strategic challenge in 2017

Examining the tactics India can use to turn the tables on its less-than-all-powerful tormentors

Look at a map of South Asia. I’ve said before that China’s unappealing wingmen are Pakistan and North Korea but luckily North Korea has shown no interest in India, lying as it does to the far east of the Middle Kingdom. China, though, right on top of India, is a threatening presence, while also shaking a fist at all the other countries in its neighbourhood, such as Vietnam and the Phillipines, as the People’s Republic throws its weight around the region. Pakistan is its enthusiastic henchman where India is concerned.

China’s strategy for regional –hemispheric? – domination consists of several elements. Forget for now its economy: nearly all growth in China today and tomorrow is debt-fuelled and will deplete wealth in the long run (Michael Pettis has done the calculations here). In fact it’s exactly because China’s real economic growth is grinding to a halt and its debt load reaching nose-bleed levels that expansion and power must now be projected by additional, alternative means.

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OBOR: China’s bait-and-switch debt trap strategy

There’s a loan shark prowling in the South China Sea

In an important article for Project Syndicate, Brahma Chellaney says that if there’s one thing China excels at, it’s the use of economic tools to advance perceived geostrategic interests. On a petty level that means dredging sand up into little island berms in the South China Sea and parking machine guns on them. In the grander scheme of things it is what has become known colloquially as ‘The New Silk Road’, or to give the project its proper title and acronym, the One Belt One Road initiative (OBOR). It’s a trillion dollar boondoggle that has as its superficial aim the re-establishment, in the interests of commonwealth and trade, of the ancient merchant route that connected East to West, along which the Romans travelled all the way to India and China two thousand years ago (the Chinese name for the Romans, by the way, is ‘lei jun’ – legion).

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Turning the screw on Pakistan

Modi and Doval ensure that Pakistan’s villainy is at last being internationalised.

If India seems to have an unusual affinity with Israel – they increasingly share trade and technology links and so on – it might partly be because their recent histories are oddly similar.

Both had the experience of declaring statehood as secular democracies at roughly the same time (India in 1947, Israel in 1948).

Then, immediately afterwards, both were attacked by Islamic neighbours: India by Pakistan; Israel by Egypt, Jordan, Syria and whoever else had a hammer. Israel was again attacked by Muslim neighbours in 1967 (the Six-Day War) and yet again in 1973 (the Yom Kippur War). Stridently Islamic Pakistan attacked India again in 1965 and yet again in 1971.

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Andaman and Nicobar Islands #2

Above the law, below the law: the trials of the tribals

This is the second post in an occasional series about the future of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which sit at the eastern edge of the Bay of Bengal facing Myanmar, Thailand and Malaysia. The open sea to the south gives these strategically important islands access to the Indian Ocean (next stop Australia) and onto the vastness of China’s wished-for sphere of influence in South Asia. It’s a perfect spot for an armed check-point and border control for all traffic travelling westward out of the Malacca Straits and a platform for defence that can vastly magnify India’s military footprint in the region.

India has scandalously neglected these utterly beautiful islands, already home to a tri-services base (the old ‘Project Yatrik’) and an under populated, underdeveloped local economy. In truth the Andamans are key to India’s future as an influential regional political power, not to mention an economic one (see Indian Ocean and India’s Security, Raj Narain Misra, 1986). If Goa is India’s California then the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are its Hawaii – it has the navy, not just the beaches, and the beaches are superior to those in Thailand, across the water.

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India underestimated (again)

For savvy investors, that can actually be a good opportunity

I recommend everybody to watch Peter Zeihan here as he delivers a barnstorming illustrated speech on the future of the world. He is a geopolitical analyst who for years worked at Stratfor, known as the ‘private sector CIA’ and has since struck out on his own. He is a great speaker, very funny, knowledgeable, engaging and stimulating.

I should warn that it is very much a Texan’s-eye view, and I am mentioning Zeihan mostly because he mentions India, at 47 minutes in, thusly:

‘The short version on India is that if you’re happy with it today, it’s not going to change a whole lot, the reason being that the Ganges basin is the most productive agricultural zone on the planet in terms of calories per acre per year. That gives you endless population growth. However, there is not a single navigable river in the country. So high populations, no capital. That’s abstract [sic: abject?], total, unending poverty. But India’s looked like this since the fifth century. So if this is an India you can operate in, an India you know and like – great! They are not a major player in Bretton Woods, never have been. They’re not going to change, but if you think India’s about to turn the corner, the whole ‘Shining India’ concept, I’m sorry. It’s looked like this for 1500 years; it’s not about to change.’

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